Posterior Probability
The conditional probability P(A|B) after observing event B, calculated using Bayes' theorem as the updated belief about A given the new evidence.
Real World
After a patient tests positive for a rare genetic condition, a genetic counsellor at Great Ormond Street Hospital calculates the posterior probability that the patient truly has the condition, updating the initial low prevalence rate with the test result.
Exam Focus
Label your answer explicitly as 'posterior probability' and show it equals the updated probability after incorporating the new evidence.
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