Confidence Interval
A confidence interval for parameter θ is an interval [L, U] calculated from sample data such that P(L < θ < U) = confidence level, typically 0.95 or 0.99. For a population mean with known σ, the 95% confidence interval is x̄ ± 1.96(σ/√n). With unknown σ, use x̄ ± t*(s/√n) where t* is the critical value from the t-distribution.
Real World
The Office for National Statistics publishes a 95% confidence interval for average weekly earnings (e.g. £620 ± £12) so policymakers understand the range of plausible true population values, not just the sample estimate.
Exam Focus
Interpret a confidence interval as 'we are 95% confident the true population mean lies between L and U' — never say '95% chance the parameter is in this interval'.
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